Lessons From My Historical Trades – Keep Calm And Keep Holding On To Get >100% Returns

One of the recent discussions I had with Mrs Budget was that, I should have held on to some of the stocks I bought when I started investing back in mid 2017. 

Back then, Mr Budget started off by looking at US equities.

Some of the popular counters which I was looking at include NVIDIA, AMD, Micron, PayPal, Amazon, Adobe and more. These are counters that I am familiar with as I see them everywhere.

Obviously, these are all high growth stocks and their price were increasing every single day. When I first started to invest, I was a trader and just bought them based on price action and what other financial analysts were saying. 

There were no research done whatsoever on my part, and because my position was very low, to me then, it made sense for me to trade in and out. 

Here are some of the historical trades which I have made.

StocksOpen PriceClose Price% P&LEntry DateExit DateHolding period (months)Current PriceCurrent % P&L
AMD$16.76$24.2444.63%16/7/201829/8/20181$52.26211.81%
Facebook$171.96$175.001.77%23/3/201826/7/20184$213.0623.90%
Huya$36.46$45.0023.42%12/6/201819/6/20181$20.31-44.30%
Micron$50.63$58.9116.35%9/4/201831/5/20182$57.3313.23%
Netflix$320.00$353.5410.48%9/3/201831/5/20183$371.0715.96%
NVIDIA$192.89$204.055.79%01/12/20179/3/20183$262.9736.33%
Adobe$173.69$185.426.75%01/12/20179/3/20183$370.00113.02%
Alibaba$180.27$174.50-3.20%01/12/20179/3/20183$215.7719.69%
Micron$44.05$55.7626.58%01/12/20179/3/20183$57.3330.15%
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd$144.34$177.9923.31%04/08/201729/11/20174$215.7749.49%
Facebook Inc.$126.57$175.1738.40%04/08/201729/11/20174$213.0668.33%
PayPal$78.25$73.12-6.56%04/08/201729/11/20174$120.0653.43%
The Walt Disney Company$110.92$105.02-5.32%04/08/201729/11/20174$142.5928.55%
Activision Inc$62.34$63.201.38%04/08/201729/11/20174$61.63-1.14%
JD.com Inc$41.52$38.57-7.11%04/08/201729/11/20174$40.10-3.42%
Amazon.com Inc.$979.85$1,152.0717.58%04/08/201729/11/20174$2,133.91117.78%
Micron Technology Inc.$34.51$44.6829.47%04/08/201729/11/20174$57.3366.13%
Nvidia$179.86$197.779.96%04/08/201729/11/20174$262.9746.21%
Mr Budget’s US Equities Trade History
Trade history in image

From the table, you can see that my average holdings were only a few months. The profits from each trade were subsequently poured into the market. 

Looking at the table, if I held on to all the stocks I bought until today, I would have made a lot more! Some of the big multi bagger which I’ve missed out is definitely AMD, Adobe, and Amazon!

For AMD, while I took a 44% profit in just 1 month, if I held on to now (19 months), the profit would have been 211.81%!
For Adobe, while I took a 6.75% profit in 3 months, if I held on to now (36 months), the profit would have been 113.02%!
For Amazon, while I took a 17.58% profit in 4 months, if I held on to now (26 months), the profit would have been 117.78%!

Other positions would also see a profit of between 15% – 70%. 

If history is any lesson, I should definitely hold on to any good US stocks for at least 12 – 24 months, and let the multi baggers continue to go up and just ride along with the bull wave.

Of course, this is easy for me to say now because in 2019, US equities generally had a good run and any US technology equity would have grown up by a fair bit if you went into the US market early last year.

Epilogue – while the tables looked great, in the end of 2018, there was a mini correction and I made a lot of bad calls and sold a lot of my active holdings back then at a loss, hence wiping out all of my profits throughout the first few years of investing. I also conveniently left out these trades towards the end of 2018, all of which are money losing trades haha.

So moral of the story – for strong US equities which are category leaders, be strong and keep holding on as long as business fundamentals remains intact, and the price are continued to be supported by growing EPS.

Don’t be afraid even if the prices are hitting new ATH (all time high) every other month.

Also, trading is mostly bad if you do not have time to actively monitor the counters.

Do you have any counters that you regret selling?

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monthly updates

What Have We Done This Month Towards Our Financial Goals – January 2020

So January has came and gone now.

While everyone else is doing a monthly portfolio update, we thought it is more meaningful to document what we have done this month towards our financial goals.

Mr Budget
Position Added: MNACT, Syfe, CPF SA Take Profit: N/A
Mrs Budget
Position Added: N/A Take Profit: N/A

Here’s a graphical representation of what we have done this month towards our financial goals:

Earlier this month prior to the Wuhan virus outbreak, Mr Budget initiated a position on Mapletree NAC Trust as the Hong Kong protest seems to be recovering, and the trust price seems to be attractive enough to warrant a position,

However, the price dropped further after the virus outbreak, hence it is in the red now. We are not too worried about it as the trust has a strong sponsor and we foresee the price to recover in the future.

As shared in our previous update too, Mr Budget contributed S$7,000 to CPF SA for FY 2020 to leverage on the higher interest rate returns. He also started a monthly investment plan with Roboadvisor Syfe. 

For Mrs Budget, there is not much changes this month. However, she will also be contributing to her CPF SA in the next few days when we do our monthly finance reconciliation. 

Our net worth continue to grow and excluding our properties, we are hitting S$560,000 in net worth (including CPF). Our net worth increases by a fair bit as we received some bonus from our employers end last year, along with the corresponding contribution to our CPF accounts.

Our targetted joint net worth which we set for ourselves by end of next year is S$800,000, and it seems like we may need to revise the target since we will have more property mortgage commitment in the net 24 months. To hit S$800,000 of joint net worth, we will each need to grow our net worth by S$60,000 this year and next year. Let’s see if we are able to do that. 🙂 

For now, the Wuhan virus outbreak seems to be getting worse every day, and things will be worse before they get any better. We probably won’t be doing anything much next month, and will start to look at some counters in Singapore and Hong Kong once things have stabilise a bit.

In the meantime, stay safe everyone!

Monthly Tracking

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Syfe Portfolio Update – January 2020

Frequent followers of Mr and Mrs Budget will know that Mr Budget had started a regular savings plan with Syfe, a relatively new roboadvisor in Singapore. 

The main reason why Mr Budget decided to go for Roboadvisor is because he is looking for a more affordable way to invest in multiple baskets of ETFs to get more diversification.

Another reason is that, Mr Budget views roboadvisors as the professionally managed portion of his portfolio since he does not have any financial advisor. As Roboadvisor firms have professionals looking at the funds daily, I’d think the results won’t be that bad as compared to our own DIY portfolios.

So here’s Mr Budget’s monthly Syfe portfolio summary.

January 2020
Total invested: S$2010.00
Current Value: S$2009.00
Portfolio Return: -0.25%
Downside Risk: 25%

Portfolio Breakdown

Not too concerned about the returns at this point as this will be a long term investment. It will take time for the portfolio to see some returns. 

According to Syfe’s forecast, based on a monthly RSP of S$1000 for 15 years at max risk, the optimistic expected return with a total capital of S$181,000 will be S$400,831, or an IRR of 10.856%. For the conservative return of S$245,971 after 15 years, the IRR will be 4.85%, still higher than the bank’s interest rate or even comparable to CPF. 

Will we be able to get the 10.85% return? Only time will tell. We will be tracking the returns monthly and will update here accordingly. 🙂

Syfe Referral Code: SRP6X8B8Y

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Thailand Returned 300% More Than Singapore In Past 10 Years And That Intrigued us

While browsing around the web for news, Mr Budget came across these tables that I thought would be interesting to document it here.

The first compares the 2019 global market returns, ranked best to worst, with its 2018 return as a comparison. The second is global total returns for the 2010s decade.

Source

Some interesting notes:

  1. Saudi Arabia returned double digit returns in 2018 and 2019.
  2. Both 2018 and 2019 saw a negative return for the Malaysia market.
  3. IT, Consumer, Healthcare and Real Estate is still the biggest growth sector in the US, and probably applies to other economies too.
  4. In the past 10 years, Thailand and Philippines returned the most, charting a growth of 181% and 154% respectively. Singapore on the other hand – 63% while Malaysia is at 33%, and China 71%. 

Point number 3 is interesting, and when we look at our portfolio, most of our investments are also in the IT and Real Estate industry, and if there are any opportunities that arises from healthcare or consumer products, we will be taking a closer look at them. 

But what caught our attention was point number 4, that Thailand and Philippines has been returning good rewards to investors. We’ve occasionally heard about Thailand being a good stock market haven for investors, but we have never really paid much attention to it. Of course, how can we do that when there are just so many things for us to monitor, especially since we are investing in the Singapore market, the US market, and are looking at the Hong Kong Market now. 

However, the lack of time shouldn’t be an excuse for us – looking at the total returns over the past 10 years of Thailand vs Singapore, Thailand returned 300% more as compared to Singapore! 

We also did a quick check if Saxo or DBS Vickers, both the brokers we are using, to see if they allow us to trade the Thai stock market, and to our surprise, they don’t allow us to do that!


Source

It seems like we may soon need to open up or change another brokerage account! 

Are there any readers who have traded the Thai market? Where should we start at? 

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Razer’s CEO Just Sold Off US$117M Of His Shares – And That Troubles Me.

Update 7th December : A reader pointed out that there might be a miscalculation on the site where the insider transaction is obtained. Hence the information here might be misleading. Will do another update once I look into the numbers the coming week.

One of the stock Mr Budget is holding is Razer, as you might noticed from our portfolio page.

Razer is a meaningful stock to Mr Budget, as he is an avid gamer. He is also a big supporter of the brand because Razer is founded by Singaporean Tan Min Liang.

At one point earlier this year, the stock price appreciated to a high of HKD2.18, marking an almost +45% gain for the stock counter.

However, the stock price has since then plunged over the past 6 months to a low of HKD1.19 this year. 

Razer share price as of 4th December 2019

I have been quietly looking at this counter and asking if I should average down since the counter is now in the red. 

On the one side, the company has been showing yoy increase in revenue, and is actively investing in new areas of growth such as fintech etc. This is to open up new revenue streams. Because of these various investment activities, the company has not been generating profit, but is forecasted to be profitable in 2-3 years. 

Razer is also operating in a high growth industry: the gaming space where price can be quite inelastic among hardcore gamers. To me, I really believe that Razer can be the new Apple, especially since some of their products are arguably better quality than Apple’s recent product. 

Apple’s current market cap is at 1.15T, while Razer is only at 10B market cap, and there are tremendous market share for Razer to capture.

Besides that, Razer is also investing in the Fintech space, as if the gaming space is not lucrative enough for them. It is also moving into mobile gaming.
Here are some financial highlights from Razer:

  • 1H2019 Net Revenue +30.3% to 357M
  • 1H2019 Services Revenue +110.5% to 35.7M
  • 1H2019 Net Loss Narrow from 57M to 48M

However, their share price kept dropping. Surely something is wrong.

As I dug deeper, I realised that the CEO has been offloading his shares in the market, and that disturbed me a fair bit.

According to Simply Wall Street, in November, both the CEO and the CFO have been offloading their shares at HKD1.40. The shocking part is that, the CEO sold US$117M worth of shares! While the CFO sold off almost US$4.4M worth of shares.

Disclaimer: Our only source of this insider trading is through Simply Wall Street.

Insider selling is usually an indication of the lack of confidence on the company’s upcoming performance, though it may be for other reasons (such as taxation purposes).

This is a huge red flag for me, and I wish I can drop the CEO an email to ask him why did he sell off his shares, especially since immediately after he sold the shares, the next day he gave an interview on CNBC stating that the company is in a great shape, and that they are continuing to invest in new growth areas.

Article published the day after CEO sold US$117M of his shares

I remember one thing I learnt from Fifth Person’s investment quadrant is that, you can observe a company by seeing if the management practice what they preach.

Why would the CEO and CFO sell their shares but claim that their company is in a good growth trajectory? In this case, something is clearly not adding up and my confidence is quickly diminishing. 

I asked myself, does this have to do with the Hong Kong Riot? I highly doubt so as majority of Razer’s revenue comes from US and then Europe, followed by APAC, so the Hong Kong riot should have negligible impact on the counter.

So we will wait for the next financial update from Razer to see if they continue to see high segmental growth in their gaming revenue, service revenue as well as if there are any ROI from their various new growth areas.

Otherwise, we may be looking at cutting our losses on this counter. 

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monthly updates

What Have We Done This Month Towards Our Financial Goals – November 2019

So November has came and gone now.

While everyone else is doing a monthly portfolio update, we thought it is more meaningful to document what we have done this month towards our financial goals.

Mr Budget
Position Added: Lendlease, Ascendas REIT, Powermatic, SE, PDD
Take Profit: Frasers Logistics Trust, Asian Pay TV Trust

Mrs Budget
Position Added: N/A
Take Profit: N/A

Here’s a graphical representation of what we have done this month towards our financial goals:

So as you can see, it was a busy month for Mr Budget. As previously shared, Mr Budget took profit on Frasers Logistics Trust and Asian Pay TV Trust.

You can read more about the reasons why here

With the proceeds and using up some of his cash savings, Mr Budget added on 5 new counters.

The first counter was Lendlease, which was also mentioned in the previous update

The second counter added was Ascendas REIT. Mr Budget has been eyeing this REIT for a while now, and with the recent price weakness, Mr Budget decided to pull the trigger and went in to buy some Ascendas REITs for long term investment. 

If you have been an avid follower of the finance space, DBS Bank has been actively promoting their new roboadvisor, the DigiPortfolio. DigiPortfolio, which invests in NIKKO Straits Times Index ETF and NikkoAM-StraitsTrading Asia ex Japan REIT ETF

If you look into the portfolio composition, the highest REIT holdings for the various portfolio under DigiPortfolio is Ascendas REIT. 

Other than the fundamentals of the REIT, this gives us a lot of confidence in Ascendas REIT seeing that the REIT takes up a substantial portion on the various exchange traded funds. If the funds are buying in, surely they know more than what we do.

We foresee strong growth from Ascendas in the long term especially since they announced that they will be acquiring 30 properties from Capitaland, increasing the DPU performance in the future.

The third counter I added is a bit speculative: Powermatic Data.

We first came across this counter while tracking Kyith’s investing activities. He has been purchasing the counter as of late, and while digging deeper, we also like what we see. 

Powermatic is a computer components distributor, and its a good growth company riding the 5G tech wave, providing customised wi-fi solutions. 
Its recent financial report shows the following:

  • YOY revenue +30%
  • H-YOY profit +46%
  • Total current assets S$39M, Total cash S$35M with no borrowings. This is a company loaded with cash.
  • They have investment properties of almost S$19M, and S$4.7M in plants and equipments.
  • They have a total headcount of 88 person generating S$21M in revenue, translating to S$240,000 revenue per person.

There are other bloggers too that agree that the company is undervalued.

Hence Mr Budget took a small position on Powermatic Data, and we have a very good feeling about this counter. We like that the company is cash and asset rich, strong financial growth, and is in a high growth industry.

The fourth counter that I added on recently is SE, or the parent company of Shopee. Mr Budget has also been sharing that he has been eyeing SE for a while now, as he is very impressed with the continued growth of the company. He finally pulled the trigger and added the counter in.

And the final one is PinDuoDuo, with the catalyst being Amazon opening up their new store on the Chinese e commerce platform. Pin Duo Duo’s addition is also a way for us to get some exposure to the China market. 

Other than the rebalancing of his portfolio and the annual clean up, Mr Budget also made a small contribution to his EPF account in Malaysia to enjoy the annual 6.5% interest rate. This amount will be used for retirement purposes.

Mrs Budget, on the other hand, has not made any purchases or sold any of her existing positions. The good news this month was that, Keppel Corp’s share surged on news of Temasek’s acquisition, hence lifting the overall portfolio value of Mrs Budget.

So that’s an update from us this month. 🙂

How have your month been? 

Monthly Tracking

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I Almost Bought This Stock Which Just Plunged 98% In One Day!

Remember the company that was introduced by the WeChat scammer?

Basically, the stock analyst who added Mr Budget “accidentally”, suggested that Mr Budget should trust her and to buy HK 3313, a stock that will see a 10-20% short term gain.

Also Read: I Was A Target Of An WeChat Investment Scam, But Made Some Money Off It!

News just broke today that the share price plunged 3800% from a high of HKD14.82 to HKD0.30 today. 

The counter was actually the world’s best performing stock leading up to the crash. Even the crypto crash could not rival this 98% share price plunge! 

According to the official news, MSCI, a well known global index shared that it will not be adding the counter onto its index, after “further analysis and feedback from market participants on investability”. No-one from the Artgo company can be reached for further comments too.

The more I read about the various reports on Artgo, the more the company looked like it was under financial engineering and artificial price inflation to get retail investors to pump up the price.

The fundamentals of the company does not make sense at all – in 2018, the company lost 400M RMB, and is valued at over 40B RMB? Shouldn’t the government officials have noticed this red flag?

It is quite scary to know that the market is also prone to price manipulation, and that the ones with money and access will and can control the market.

They would even come out with elaborate internet / WeChat scams to get retail investors to throw in their money to pump up the share prices, before they dump all their shares. At the end of the day, you can only blame any victims on their greed.

Lessons to note:

  1. Invest in companies with proven track record with solid financial fundamentals.
  2. Invest in dividend paying companies.
  3. If something is too good to be true, it probably is.
  4. Don’t be sucked in by get-rich-fast schemes.

Stay safe everyone! 🙂 

(Title is a bit dramatic – I looked at the company finances and it was very big obvious red flag)

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