monthly updates

What Have We Done This Month Towards Our Financial Goals – March 2020

So March and 2020 first quarter has came and gone now. And March has been yet another a roller coaster month because of the whole virus situation.

While everyone else is doing a monthly portfolio update, we thought it is more meaningful to document what we have done this month towards our financial goals.

Mr Budget
Position Added: AIMS AMP, Ascendas India Trust, Keppel Pacific OAK, CMT, Syfe Global Equities, Syfe REIT+
Take Profit: Ascendas, Centurion, Amazon, Axon, SEA

Mrs Budget
Position Added: AIMS AMP, Ascendas India Trust, Keppel Pacific OAK, CMT, Syfe Global Equities, Syfe REIT+ Take Profit: Ascendas, Netlink Trust

There were a fair bit of transactions this month, and mostly they can be classified into:

  1. Selling some of our recently added positions to take profit and avoid losses
  2. Buying to remain vested in market as well as adding counters which are below NAV and are oversold.

For Mr Budget and Mrs Budget, we took profit off Ascendas which we bought in November last year, and still manage to clock in a 10% gain before the counter plunged to below our entry price.

We may initiate a position to buy Ascendas again when the price drops further. 

To accumulate more cash, Mr Budget also sold off more than half of his US equities, as well as his stake in Centurion before it dived lower than his entry price.

Similarly, Mrs Budget also took profit on her Netlink Trust holdings. 

With the proceeds from the sales of shares, we rotated those capital into the following counters:

  1. AIMS AMP – dropped to a 8 years low, with a price/nav of 0.77 and 45% upside. There was insider buying too when share plunged.
  2. Ascendas India Trust – dropped to 1 year low, with a price yield of 8.21% and a 54% upside. Our first exposure to the India market.
  3. Keppel Pacific OAK – dropped to all time low, with a price/nav of 0.61 and a 80% upside. 
  4. Capitalmall Trust – dropped to a 8 years low, with a price/nav of 0.84 and a 55% upside. Finally manage to get this REIT.

Overall, we recycled our invested capital into new REITs with better prices, and this month our investing activity is still net capital outlay for our Singapore equities.

We also continued our monthly Syfe DCA contribution.

Here’s a graphical representation of what we have done this month towards our financial goals:

While our portfolio went down by a lot, it is cushioned by our employment income as well as constant CPF contribution. Mrs Budget also received her performance bonus which help lifted her net worth up.

Our joint net worth is at around S$590,000 now, almost hitting S$600,000, excluding our properties and mortgages but including our CPF. 

In our previous updates, we shared that cash is king and that we will be accumulating cash.

Hence we are treating our stock purchase this month as our first deployment of our war chest during this COVID 19 outbreak. 

PhasesMr BudgetMrs BudgetDeployment Signals
1AS$20,000S$20,000Singapore market STI -20% 2400 – Deployed
1BS$20,000S$20,000US NASDAQ -25% 6750
2AS$30,000S$30,000Singapore market STI -20% 2000
2BS$30,000S$50,000US NASDAQ -25% 5400
3AS$50,000S$120,000Singapore market STI -20% 1600
3BS$30,000S$70,000US NASDAQ -25% 4000
Current: STI 2440 NASDAQ 7500

We have done 1A last week, and will monitor the US market for phase 1B.

Phase 1 is funded by our existing capital in the market. 
Phase 2 will be funded by our current cash in bank.
Phase 3 will be funded via a combination of home equity loan as well as credit card cash advance.

Assuming we do hit phase 3, here are some of the counters we will be accumulating:

  1. Ascendas REIT
  2. Keppel DC REIT
  3. Comfort Delgro
  4. CRCT
  5. Suntec REIT
  6. Centurion
  7. SGX
  8. DBS
  9. Mastercard
  10. SEA
  11. Booking
  12. Google
  13. Adobe
  14. Amazon
  15. Square
  16. Facebook

Hopefully we will be able to scoop up these counters at good price and they will reward us in the future. 

Stay safe everyone, and happy hunting!

Monthly Tracking

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The Market Crash – The Economic Signs We Are Looking For And When We Will Deploy Our Cash

One of the biggest dilemma that we are facing now is, when should be deploy our capital back into the market. 

The sensible response to that is, keep DCA-ing now because one can never successfully time the market. That’s especially true because who are we if professionals themselves can’t time the market correctly.

Our cash in hand is limited because we have been constantly investing throughout the past one year. Our equity portfolio is now at -20% and we expect the position to drop slightly further when companies announce their earnings in the next two quarters.

In reality, all of us are part gamblers and it is challenging to continue to DCA downwards, especially when we are now presented with a once in a lifetime opportunity to accumulate stocks at great value. 

So instead of buying down and accumulate stocks this few months, we will be looking out at these signs before we start deploying our cash.

Recovery of global travel demand

The global and local economy is powered by production and productivity. Both of these is in turned catalysed by the workforce.

If human interaction is still low, productivity and production will decrease, leading to decline in economy and eventually leading to recession.

So the question then is how do we get a barometer to the “recovery of human interaction”. The answer to that – the global travel demand. 

Empty planes now

If global travel demand is restored, people will start to travel for trade meetings, conferences, or even travelling for leisure which will boost local economy.

All these will increase local spending, which are all great news for companies globally. 

The slight good news is that, China has announced that shopping malls are starting to buzz again.

Unemployment rate will go up, housing mortgage default rate will increase

Another ripple effect of the virus is that, companies have freezed hiring.

I think companies which are faced with big cash flow problem will start to cut their manpower cost at part of cost cutting measures. This will lead to an increase in unemployment rate. 

Unemployment rate is bad news – this means that housing mortgage default rate might increase.

Once we see the recovery of the default rate, I think we may potentially be looking at the recovery of the local economy. 

Of course, this is one of the last lagging indicator for the recovering economy, so we will be looking to deploy our cash when the housing mortgage default rate starts to hit the news. 

Constant Battle Between Buying Now And Waiting

For now, Mrs Budget and myself are prepping up our war chest by seeing exactly how much we can invest, where can we get more cash, and we have drawn up a shopping list once we see some signs of recovery. 

We may deploy 10-20% of our war chest soon because some prices of REITs are just unbelievably attractive, and warrants strong margin of safety. 

However, we are also mindful that any bounce back now is just a dead cat bounce because we really haven’t seen the worst from the virus globally. Countries have not seen the tapering off of the virus yet, and it is really too early to access the impact of the virus to their business. 

To give a better context, the stock market crash only started less than a month ago!

Companies will still have to announce their actual earnings, and we have not hear anything from the government in terms of the second economy stimulus package.

Also what if Singapore implement a full shut down since everyday cases are going up? Then the price all local retail and commercial REITs will take another dive.

Hence we are constantly battling between: “Wa damn cheap now! Buy buy!” versus all the reasons we laid out earlier in this article – that the ripple effect is not fully internalised yet.

Our logic is that, if it’s a clear sign that in the next few months it will be a downward slope, why do we DCA now?

On theory and paper it is easy to follow through with DCA-ing, but in reality, we find it a bit challenging – at least for the next 1 – 2 months.

Adding this here for memory sake – on 16 March, only 2 counters were green.

Because of the sudden market crash, we will be viewing our existing portfolio which is in the red now (as with everyone’s portfolio who have been investing in the past 5 years) as a cold storage. Wont be cutting loss and we will just wait for the recovery of the portfolio.

For the existing portfolio, we manage to sell about 20-30% before the mega plunge to take profit, but overall we are probably down by 20-30% in terms of portfolio value. We expect a further 10% drawdown from that.

This market crash is also a good time for us to reset and relook into our portfolio strategy – because our current portfolio are a bit of a rojak now due to a combination of various reasons. 

Our first few stocks were bought as far as 2 years ago, and it’s based on the “attractiveness” and value of the counter at that point. We then added new counters along the way as new “attractive” counters came by, and hence, it’s rojak now. 

With the market crash, this presents a good time to reset our portfolio mix, and sort them according to fair allocation to different sectors.

Hence our priority shopping list during this great REIT Singapore sale will be based on adding exposure to sectors and countries we were previously underexposed, for example:

  1. Data Centre – Keppel DC REIT
  2. India – Ascendas India Trust
  3. Transport – Comfort Delgro

Will probably be sharing our shopping list soon along with updating our portfolio and net worth impact from the market crash.

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Syfe Portfolio Update – February 2020

Frequent followers of Mr and Mrs Budget will know that Mr Budget had started a regular savings plan with Syfe.

The main reason why Mr Budget decided to go for Roboadvisor is because he is looking for a more affordable way to invest in multiple baskets of ETFs to get more diversification.

Another reason is that, Mr Budget views roboadvisors as the professionally managed portion of his portfolio since he does not have any financial advisor.

As Roboadvisor firms have professionals looking at the funds daily, I’d think the results won’t be that bad as compared to our own DIY portfolios.

In February, Mr and Mrs Budget also started investing into Syfe’s new REIT portfolio REIT+. As both Mr and Mrs Budget are looking at monthly contribution into Syfe, we have decided to combine our Syfe account together so that our returns (or losses) will be compounded. 🙂

So here’s Mr and Mrs Budget’s monthly Syfe portfolio summary.

February 2020

Global Equity Portfolio
Total invested: S$4520.00
Current Value: S$4248.60
Portfolio Return: -6%
Downside Risk: 25%

REIT Portfolio
Total invested: S$3150.00
Current Value: S$3075.90
Portfolio Return: -2.35%
Current Dividend Yield: 4.57%

So far the portfolio registered a negative return as the market entered a correction zone over the past 2 weeks.

We are not too concerned as we will continue to put in regular contribution to Syfe monthly, and hopefully 5 to 10 years later we will be able to see the returns.

Will Syfe give us a good return, better than what CPF SA is giving us? Only time will tell. 🙂

You might be interested in previous months update too:

Global Equity:
January 2020: S$2009.00 (-0.25%)
February 2020: S$4248.60 (-6%)

February 2020: S$3075.90 (-2.35%)

Looking to invest via Syfe? You can use our referral code: SRP6X8B8Y when you create an account. We would both get $10 to $100 depending on your first deposit amount, and you’d receive your bonus within 5 business days. 

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monthly updates

What Have We Done This Month Towards Our Financial Goals – February 2020

So February has came and gone now. And wow February has been a roller coaster month because of the whole virus situation.

While everyone else is doing a monthly portfolio update, we thought it is more meaningful to document what we have done this month towards our financial goals.

Mr Budget
Position Added: MTQ, Syfe Global Equities, Syfe REIT+
Stop Loss: Sembcorp Industries

Mrs Budget
Position Added: MTQ, Comfort Delgro, DBS, Syfe Global Equities, Syfe REIT+, Stashaway
Take Profit: N/A

Here’s a graphical representation of what we have done this month towards our financial goals:

February is a big month of investing especially for the Mrs. Both the Mrs and I have initiated a position in MTQ, after first discovering about it from Brian of Forever Financial Freedom.

Agreeing with mostly what he outlined, and seeing that we don’t have an exposure in the oil and gas sector, we initiated a small position in MTQ. The stock went up shortly but came down again when the market reacted to the COVID 19 virus.

On top of MTQ, Mrs Budget has also taken the opportunity of the market correction to scoop up both DBS and Comfort Delgro, two blue chip stocks that we are confident will be here to stay for a long time.

As we have also mentioned in our earlier post, we are slowly putting in some funds into Syfe (and additionally into Stashaway for the Mrs) so that this will be our “emergency fund” which we viewed as the professionally managed portion of our portfolio.

In terms of position sold, Mr Budget also manage to close his position in Sembcorp, after holding on to this shit stock, pun intended, for over 1 year before the price plunged even further.

Mr Budget has no confidence in the financials and fundamentals of this stock and there seemed to be no price catalyst / innovation for the company in the near future. Hence, this is a good time get some cash back to build up his war chest to buy other attractive stocks right now. Overall, Mr Budget registered a loss of 22% on the counter over a 1 year period. 

Our net worth continue to grow and excluding our properties, we are hitting S$583,000 in net worth (including CPF). Our joint net worth last month was at S$560,000.

Updates On Portfolio due to COVID

If you notice from our net worth, our net worth still grows steadily despite the COVID virus. That is partly because our exposure to equity is still kept at a manageable % of our overall portfolio. A sizeable portion of our net worth is still tied to CPF, something which we foresee to be the case for a long long time.

For Mr Budget, his equities investments forms less than 40% of his total portfolio, and part of the equities losses this month is offset by the gains of the US equities in end Jan / early February.

For Mrs Budget, the equity exposure is even lower at 28%.

In terms of the counters that we are looking at, we are very tempted to average down on Hong Kong Land because it is trading at a very very attractive price now.

Other counters we want to average down is also Lendlease and MNACT, and new counters Mr Budget is also looking at includes Comfort Delgro, CCT, and Singapore Exchange.

US equities side, we are still very interested in Bookings, and are actively monitoring Mastercard and Adobe

If only we have in excess of S$50,000, we would just scoop up all of these stocks now. But unfortunately, our bullets are limited, and my sense is that Mr Budget will average down on Hong Kong Land if prices hit $4.80. Let’s see what happens after their earnings in the next few days.

There’s someone in some telegram group now saying that the current price correction is making investors behaving like a child in a candy store, and that is exactly how we are feeling now. 

However, we are also mindful that we might just be seeing the start of a recession, because the full impact of the virus is not felt by the global markets yet.

Hence we are cautious, and not actively deploying all of our capital in the market yet. For this month, we may only be investing in our regular robo investments. 

In the meantime, stay safe everyone, and happy hunting!

Monthly Tracking

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Geopolitical Risk In Malaysia Is Seriously Scaring Investors Away

So one of the biggest thing that happened earlier today was that, Malaysia’s prime minister has just announced that he will be resigning as the prime minister of Malaysia.

The motives aside, the stock market of Malaysia reacted and fell to its 5 years low, the index fell below 1500 points for the first time in 5 years.

One of the things I mentioned to my friends in Malaysia is that, the Malaysian stock market confuses me. It seems that the market is driven not by company fundamentals, but rather driven more by geopolitical movements. 

As investors, I think this is discouraging. We only have access to the financials of companies, and we make investment decisions based on the company’s financials. However, it seems as though geopolitical risks are very high in Malaysia, and the politics can swing a high rising company stock and send it crashing down.

When the new coalition party managed to overthrow the ruling party’s grip in the last election, market crashed because there is a change in regime, hence affecting companies largely with dealings with the government. 

Stock prices didn’t really recover over the past few years, even if the stock prices had the chance to recover, surely the recovery now is again stifled by the change in government again.

This affects not just companies with dealings with the government, but also independent companies listed in the KL Bursa who has no dealing with the government with sound business fundamentals. 

As an investor, I will surely be staying out of the Malaysia stock market – who knows when things are starting to stabilise, the new government might mess things up again. 

If you’ve noticed from our portfolio, Mr Budget have been holding onto some Malaysia equity. Those were purchased before the previous election.

Following the past 2018 election which saw Pakatan Harapan overthrowing long ruling Barisan National, the whole portfolio went down by -40% in just 2 weeks. Currently I’m holding on to a paper loss of -60%. The good thing is, the overall holding is only worth less than S$2,000 now. 

With the high geopolitical risk, along with the bad Malaysia stock market performance, the state pension board (EPF) also recently announced a low interest rate of 5.45%, the lowest since 2008. 

Malaysia Historical EPF Rate

I have also been doing voluntary contribution to the EPF board since last year, and might look into this strategy to see if it make sense to continue contributing to EPF. While the EPF rate is still higher than CPF (SA 4%), in the long run, the rate might continue to drop, and the currency depreciation might erode the returns of the EPF.

Geopolitical risk can play a very big factor in investor’s sentiments, and as a Malaysian, I’m feeling sad for the country. 

Hopefully Singaporeans don’t take the Singapore government for granted, because I really think Singapore have some, if not the best, ministers anyone can find. 

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Lessons From My Historical Trades – Keep Calm And Keep Holding On To Get >100% Returns

One of the recent discussions I had with Mrs Budget was that, I should have held on to some of the stocks I bought when I started investing back in mid 2017. 

Back then, Mr Budget started off by looking at US equities.

Some of the popular counters which I was looking at include NVIDIA, AMD, Micron, PayPal, Amazon, Adobe and more. These are counters that I am familiar with as I see them everywhere.

Obviously, these are all high growth stocks and their price were increasing every single day. When I first started to invest, I was a trader and just bought them based on price action and what other financial analysts were saying. 

There were no research done whatsoever on my part, and because my position was very low, to me then, it made sense for me to trade in and out. 

Here are some of the historical trades which I have made.

StocksOpen PriceClose Price% P&LEntry DateExit DateHolding period (months)Current PriceCurrent % P&L
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd$144.34$177.9923.31%04/08/201729/11/20174$215.7749.49%
Facebook Inc.$126.57$175.1738.40%04/08/201729/11/20174$213.0668.33%
The Walt Disney Company$110.92$105.02-5.32%04/08/201729/11/20174$142.5928.55%
Activision Inc$62.34$63.201.38%04/08/201729/11/20174$61.63-1.14% Inc$41.52$38.57-7.11%04/08/201729/11/20174$40.10-3.42% Inc.$979.85$1,152.0717.58%04/08/201729/11/20174$2,133.91117.78%
Micron Technology Inc.$34.51$44.6829.47%04/08/201729/11/20174$57.3366.13%
Mr Budget’s US Equities Trade History
Trade history in image

From the table, you can see that my average holdings were only a few months. The profits from each trade were subsequently poured into the market. 

Looking at the table, if I held on to all the stocks I bought until today, I would have made a lot more! Some of the big multi bagger which I’ve missed out is definitely AMD, Adobe, and Amazon!

For AMD, while I took a 44% profit in just 1 month, if I held on to now (19 months), the profit would have been 211.81%!
For Adobe, while I took a 6.75% profit in 3 months, if I held on to now (36 months), the profit would have been 113.02%!
For Amazon, while I took a 17.58% profit in 4 months, if I held on to now (26 months), the profit would have been 117.78%!

Other positions would also see a profit of between 15% – 70%. 

If history is any lesson, I should definitely hold on to any good US stocks for at least 12 – 24 months, and let the multi baggers continue to go up and just ride along with the bull wave.

Of course, this is easy for me to say now because in 2019, US equities generally had a good run and any US technology equity would have grown up by a fair bit if you went into the US market early last year.

Epilogue – while the tables looked great, in the end of 2018, there was a mini correction and I made a lot of bad calls and sold a lot of my active holdings back then at a loss, hence wiping out all of my profits throughout the first few years of investing. I also conveniently left out these trades towards the end of 2018, all of which are money losing trades haha.

So moral of the story – for strong US equities which are category leaders, be strong and keep holding on as long as business fundamentals remains intact, and the price are continued to be supported by growing EPS.

Don’t be afraid even if the prices are hitting new ATH (all time high) every other month.

Also, trading is mostly bad if you do not have time to actively monitor the counters.

Do you have any counters that you regret selling?

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monthly updates

What Have We Done This Month Towards Our Financial Goals – January 2020

So January has came and gone now.

While everyone else is doing a monthly portfolio update, we thought it is more meaningful to document what we have done this month towards our financial goals.

Mr Budget
Position Added: MNACT, Syfe, CPF SA Take Profit: N/A
Mrs Budget
Position Added: N/A Take Profit: N/A

Here’s a graphical representation of what we have done this month towards our financial goals:

Earlier this month prior to the Wuhan virus outbreak, Mr Budget initiated a position on Mapletree NAC Trust as the Hong Kong protest seems to be recovering, and the trust price seems to be attractive enough to warrant a position,

However, the price dropped further after the virus outbreak, hence it is in the red now. We are not too worried about it as the trust has a strong sponsor and we foresee the price to recover in the future.

As shared in our previous update too, Mr Budget contributed S$7,000 to CPF SA for FY 2020 to leverage on the higher interest rate returns. He also started a monthly investment plan with Roboadvisor Syfe. 

For Mrs Budget, there is not much changes this month. However, she will also be contributing to her CPF SA in the next few days when we do our monthly finance reconciliation. 

Our net worth continue to grow and excluding our properties, we are hitting S$560,000 in net worth (including CPF). Our net worth increases by a fair bit as we received some bonus from our employers end last year, along with the corresponding contribution to our CPF accounts.

Our targetted joint net worth which we set for ourselves by end of next year is S$800,000, and it seems like we may need to revise the target since we will have more property mortgage commitment in the net 24 months. To hit S$800,000 of joint net worth, we will each need to grow our net worth by S$60,000 this year and next year. Let’s see if we are able to do that. 🙂 

For now, the Wuhan virus outbreak seems to be getting worse every day, and things will be worse before they get any better. We probably won’t be doing anything much next month, and will start to look at some counters in Singapore and Hong Kong once things have stabilise a bit.

In the meantime, stay safe everyone!

Monthly Tracking

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